000 AXNT20 KNHC 202354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N17W TO 6N17W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SPIKE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N28W TO 5N29W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS CO-LOCATED WITH A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 6N29W. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS F19N68W ACROSS THE E TIP OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 15N70W TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W MOVING 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SE TO NW E OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 19N94W THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH ANY CONVECTION INLAND OVER MEXICO. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W THEN RESUMES E OF THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N19W TO 6N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N31W AND EXTENDS ALONG 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 18W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER SW LOUISIANA IS PROVIDING A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST OVER THE GULF CREATING HAZY CONDITIONS S OF LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF COUPLED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF IS SPREADING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST INTO THE GULF WATERS N OF 29N E OF 90W. A SEABREEZE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NE VENEZUELA TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COUPLED WITH THE DIFFLUENT FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 220 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA/COSTA RICA TO ACROSS EASTERN CUBA INCLUDING JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE GULF HONDURAS MAINLY AT NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. THIS WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SHOWER/ THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY TAPERING OFF ON SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA W-SW ALONG 29N79W CROSSING FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS THE ONLY INDICATION LEFT OF A WEAK 1016 MB LOW THAT IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH. A SEABREEZE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS IS GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 30N68W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CUBA AND W HISPANIOLA AND THUS ARE BEING DRAWN INTO THE W ATLC BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS W OF 70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 61W-68W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 56W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N- 25N BETWEEN 53W-61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 30N53W TO 27N61W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS NEAR 28N31W AND 28N44W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE HIGHS EXTENDING FROM 30N37W TO 26N40W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE 1016 MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW