000 AXNT20 KNHC 201105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KNOTS. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON THE SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM AND THE SUNY-ALBANY WAVE DIAGNOSTICS FROM THE GFS MODEL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ITCZ FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. A CYCLONIC ENVELOPE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 32W EASTWARD TO AFRICA. MORE THAN ONE AREA OF WESTWARD-PROPAGATING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...PASSING ACROSS PUERTO RICO...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N60W TO 17N57W AND TO 11N56W. SUNY-ALBANY DIAGNOSTIC DATA SHOW THAT THE 700 MB TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OF LONGITUDE TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE POSITION. A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO-EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W...TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N20W AND 7N28W. THE ITCZ IS NOT APPARENT TO THE WEST OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 37W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ACROSS HONDURAS...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 85W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 85W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA AND HISPANIOLA TO THE NORTH OF 14N60W 14N70W 10N79W...AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N SOUTHWARD FROM 66W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 97W/98W...FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS BEYOND 100W IN MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATION...KGRY AND KVOA. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT BROWNSVILLE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND IN MOBILE ALABAMA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN MILTON FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE PANAMA CITY AREA HAS BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG IN ITS LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THE VISIBILITY IS 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN PERRY FLORIDA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ACROSS HONDURAS...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 750 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CENTER TO 11N56W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...PASSING ACROSS PUERTO RICO...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N60W TO 17N57W AND TO 11N56W. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND A RIDGE RESTS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- HISPANIOLA RIDGE. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.67 IN GUADELOUPE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 66W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 86W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...PASSING ACROSS PUERTO RICO...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N60W TO 17N57W AND TO 11N56W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 26N30W AND 25N48W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N48W TO 29N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W 29N48W 27N58W 26N66W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N15W TO 30N20W TO 25N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT CURVES THROUGH 31N16W TO 27N23W AND 31N28W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N33W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N36W...TO A SECOND 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N44W...TO 25N62W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT