000 AXNT20 KNHC 200604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KNOTS. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON THE SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM AND THE SUNY-ALBANY WAVE DIAGNOSTICS FROM THE GFS MODEL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ITCZ FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. A CYCLONIC ENVELOPE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 32W EASTWARD TO AFRICA. MORE THAN ONE AREA OF WESTWARD-PROPAGATING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 48W AND 62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N60W TO 17N57W AND TO 11N56W. SCATTERED STRONG IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO-EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 9N20W AND 6N28W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 2N/3N BETWEEN 35W AND THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ACROSS HONDURAS...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 85W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 26N BETWEEN 67W AND 86W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 97W/98W...FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS BEYOND 100W IN MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATION...KATP AND KIKT. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AWAY FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED IN IN MILTON FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ACROSS HONDURAS...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 750 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CENTER TO 11N56W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 48W AND 62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N60W TO 17N57W AND TO 11N56W. SCATTERED STRONG IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND A RIDGE RESTS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- HISPANIOLA RIDGE. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.67 IN GUADELOUPE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 86W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 48W AND 62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N60W TO 17N57W AND TO 11N56W. SCATTERED STRONG IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 26N30W AND 25N48W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 31N53W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N53W TO 29N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 29N59W TO 28N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 56W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 32N37W 29N47W 28N56W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N15W TO 30N20W TO 25N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT CURVES THROUGH 32N18W TO 28N23W AND 31N28W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N33W TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N36W...TO A SECOND 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N44W...TO 25N62W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT