000 AXNT20 KNHC 191754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS/SURFACE MAP ALONG 28W/29W FROM 5N-11N BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION AND THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM. THIS WAVE MOVED OUT OF AFRICA A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. IN ADDITION...THE CIMSS VORTICITY PRODUCT PROVIDES SOME SUPPORT FOR THE WAVE POSITION INDICATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-9N. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15- 20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT EXTENDS FROM 19N58W TO 11N59W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS REFLECTED IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE TPW ANIMATION AND COINCIDES WITH A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT...PUERTO RICO EARLY ON FRI...AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS ALONG 88W S OF 18N. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE EPAC WHERE IS PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION. ONLY FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 8N13W THEN CONTINUES TO 07N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N20W TO 06N27W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W/29W FROM 5N30W TO 3N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 13W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 22W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE SE CONUS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N85W TO 26N87W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF REGION BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG THE COASTS OF MEXICO AND TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST OF THIS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO ANCHOR ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CELL DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 27N. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITHIN ABOUT 210 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 22N78W TO 16N85W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER PARTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE N OF AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE 1406 ASCAT CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. ...HISPANIOLA... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY BY SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS N OF 27N. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC MAP IN THIS AREA AND STRETCHES FROM 30N79W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. TO THE EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N60W. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W SW TO 26N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC WITH A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 30N34W AND NEAR 28N42W. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE SEEN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE TROPICS REMAINS QUIET AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR