000 AXNT20 KNHC 191057 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N55W 12N57W 8N59W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. A CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA... MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IS MOVING AWAY FROM EL SALVADOR...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FOR THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO 4N34W 4N40W AND 3N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 8N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N84W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.04 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...0.17 IN GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.03 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE BAHAMAS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THAT PART THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 21N80W 18N84W 19N87W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W...FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N94W...INTO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KATP. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT HARLINGEN IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN VICTORIA AND PALACIOS...AND IN TOMBALL TEXAS...JUST TO THE NORTH OF HOUSTON. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...IN MILTON FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...IN PUNTA GORDA TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA.. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N84W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.04 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...0.17 IN GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.03 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE BAHAMAS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THAT PART THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 21N80W 18N84W 19N87W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND A RIDGE RESTS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IS MOVING AWAY FROM EL SALVADOR...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FOR THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W AND ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 15N TO THE WEST OF 75W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 86W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 27N48W AND TO A 26N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N66W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT STARTS NEAR 32N51W TO 30N60W TO 29N64W. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 29N64W TO 26N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 28N40W 25N60W 24N70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE REMNANT OF A SURFACE TROUGH STILL IS FOUND IN THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. THE SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA HINT AT THE TROUGH STILL AS POSSIBLY BEING EVIDENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N94W...INTO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N...FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N34W...TO 29N51W AND 24N60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT