000 AXNT20 KNHC 190604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N55W 12N57W 8N58W...TO 6N53W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM SOUTHERN HONDURAS TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N87W BEYOND 9N93...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N16W TO 6N20W 6N30W 4N40W AND 4N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 28W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N84W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.04 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. 0.17 IN GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.03 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 28N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W...FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N94W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGVX...KCRH...KGBK...KATP...AND KXPY. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS...AWAY FROM THE COAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N84W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.04 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. 0.17 IN GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.03 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 28N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND A RIDGE RESTS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N87W BEYOND 9N93...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM SOUTHERN HONDURAS TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN PANAMA FROM 80W WESTWARD. SCATTERED STRONG IS ALONG THE PANAMA COAST BETWEEN 79W AND 80W...AND WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 11N81W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET...FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 87W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THROUGH 32N46W TO 29N50W AND TO A 26N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N66W...PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO A 28N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 29N62W TO 26N67W AND 26N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 24N67W 25N60W 28N46W 30N40W AND 32N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N33W 26N34W 24N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N34W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N43W...TO 26N52W AND 19N63W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT