000 AXNT20 KNHC 190000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N57W TO 14N54W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 05N-16N BETWEEN 50W-58W THAT COINCIDES WITH GLOBAL MODEL 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY GUIDANCE AND A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 50W-58W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 16N84W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THE WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AIDING IN SUSTAINING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N18W TO 05N26W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS W OF 84W OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 97W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST OF THIS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AND FURTHER SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE W-SW TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INFLUENCES PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF 83W THIS EVENING...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE WEST OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM 27N84W TO 24N86W WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT W OF 90W AND 5 TO 15 KT E OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO ANCHOR ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG 87W TO A BASE OVER HONDURAS. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED W OF 86W... HOWEVER A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 77W-85W. FARTHER NORTHWEST...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS CUBA AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE... TRADES PERSIST GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 68W-83W. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MOVES WEST OF THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 56W SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE ISLAND STILL FINDS ITSELF UNDER A SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES TO THE WEST OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVE AMPLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...AND FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 75W-83W. TO THE EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 26N64W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N56W SW TO 26N68W THEN W TO 26N73W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N62W TO 24N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 60W-66W. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDES INFLUENCE E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N34W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN