000 AXNT20 KNHC 181046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N46W 9N51W...TO 6N53W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N73W 10N80W...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 13N16W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N19W TO 5N30W AND TO 4N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 18W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W...TO A 30N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...TO A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS SPANNING WESTERN CUBA...CONTINUING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FINALLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.36 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 85W EASTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 101W...FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N73W...TO THE BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 26N96W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGHB...KIPN...K9F2 AND KAXO ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE VICTORIA-TO-PALACIOS LINE SOUTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN VICTORIA. THE SKIES ARE CLEARING AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THAT AREA...LEADING TO BEAUMONT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT FOURCHON AND AT GRAND ISLE IN SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON KEY TO THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W...TO A 30N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...TO A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS SPANNING WESTERN CUBA...CONTINUING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FINALLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.36 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 85W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUNTA CANA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE FROM CUBA TO 30N72W. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.17 IN GUADELOUPE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N73W 10N80W...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET...FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 80W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 86W... INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO A 28N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N61W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 27N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N68W TO 29N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 28N58W TO 23N65W. THE REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...FROM 24 HOURS AGO...ARE NEAR 26N54W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N73W...TO THE BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 26N96W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N34W...TO 27N59W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT