000 AXNT20 KNHC 180605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N46W 8N50W...TO 4N53W IN FRENCH GUIANA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W FROM 15N IN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 77W IN COLOMBIA AND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA...FROM 12N TO 14N...WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 77W AND 90W...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N18W AND 4N22W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 4N22W 4N30W 4N38W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.36 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG COVERS THE AREA FROM CUBA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 76W WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND THE EASTERN SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 29N87W 23N84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 29N87W 23N84W...FROM THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 101W...FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N73W...TO THE BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 27N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KXIH ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...KVAF...AND KGUL. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE INLAND SECTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...FROM ROCKPORT SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN THE PENSACOLA FLORIDA AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN VALPARAISO AND DESTIN. RAINSHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER...HAVE CLEARED UP IN PERRY FLORIDA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.36 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG COVERS THE AREA FROM CUBA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 76W WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND THE EASTERN SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 29N87W 23N84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 29N87W 23N84W...FROM THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO WESTERN CUBA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO... PUNTA CANA...AND PUERTO PLATA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTIAGO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE FROM CUBA TO 30N72W. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.17 IN GUADELOUPE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N IN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 7N92W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 4N TO 9N IN WESTERN COLOMBIA BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET...FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 80W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 86W... INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO A 28N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N67W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W...TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT RUNS FROM 32N56W TO A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N63W. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 27N67W AND 28N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 30N42W 24N57W 24N70W. THE REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...FROM 24 HOURS AGO...ARE NEAR 26N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N73W...TO THE BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 27N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N34W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT