000 AXNT20 KNHC 172355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N51W TO 12N45W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 02N-13N BETWEEN 40W-51W THAT COINCIDES WITH GLOBAL MODEL 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY GUIDANCE AND A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 44W-51W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 17N79W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER CUBA. IN ADDITION...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THE WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AIDING IN SUSTAINING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 77W-85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 07N20W TO 06N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N23W TO 04N30W TO 04N46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND CUBA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 97W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST OF THIS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AND FURTHER SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF WATERS NEAR 30N87W. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INFLUENCES PORTIONS OF CUBA AND EVEN EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF 83W THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT W OF 90W AND 5 TO 15 KT E OF 90W. THE SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER AT THE SURFACE N OF 18N W OF 79W. TO THE SE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE. BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING AS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE WAVE ALONG WITH LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 77W-85W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. OTHERWISE...TRADES PERSIST GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 67W-82W. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE BASIN...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG TRADES CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE ISLAND STILL FINDS ITSELF UNDER A SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES TO THE WEST OVER CUBA. THESE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVE AMPLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N63W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SW TO 23N69W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N57W SW TO 28N67W THEN W TO 28N72W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N60W TO 26N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER SOUTHWEST HOWEVER...WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOCUSED OVER CUBA...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 21N- 26N BETWEEN 75W-82W...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 28N ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N71W. LASTLY... ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDES INFLUENCE E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN