000 AXNT20 KNHC 171108 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N37W 8N43W 1N45W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND 43W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD... MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W FROM 15N IN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 77W IN COLOMBIA AND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA...FROM 12N TO 14N...WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 77W AND 90W...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N18W AND 4N22W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 4N22W 4N30W 4N38W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST NEAR 30N75W...TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.97 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 22.5N4W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 24N IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 98W...FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N73W...TO 32N80W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 29N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KBBF...THAT IS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE INLAND SECTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA INCLUDING NEARBY SMALLER COMMUNITIES...SOUTHWARD. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT GRAND ISLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS HAS BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS FOR THE LAST HOUR OR SO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS APALACHICOLA. THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS FROM THE LAST FEW HOURS IN BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA HAVE BEEN CLEARING DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE KEY WEST FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST NEAR 30N75W...TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.97 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 22.5N4W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 24N IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.97 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 77W IN COLOMBIA AND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA...FROM 12N TO 14N...WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 77W AND 90W...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT TO 30 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET...FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE 18-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 86W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N65W TO 27N73W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 28N68W...CURVING TO 30N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N62W 26N70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N55W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N40W 25N49W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE AREA OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...CURVING TO 27N21W AND 24N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N73W...TO 32N80W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 29N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT