000 AXNT20 KNHC 170605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N40W 7N43W 2N46W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM 14N IN NICARAGUA SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 81W AND 89W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N16W AND 6N20W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 6N20W 4N24W 4N34W AND 5N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 9N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST NEAR 30N75W...TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.97 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 23N IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 82W...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE LINE 30N86W 23N84W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N74W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO A NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N85W...TO 28N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBBF AND KCRH. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES AIRPORT IN PANAMA CITY. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST NEAR 30N75W...TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.97 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 23N IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 82W...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE LINE 30N86W 23N84W EASTWARD. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.97 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 81W AND 89W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W AND ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 86W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N57W TO 32N62W TO 27N67W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N67W AND 29N75W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 28N60W 26N72W NORTHWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N54W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N51W 24N55W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 31N29W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N29W TO 27N36W AND TO 26N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N74W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO A NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N85W...TO 28N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT