000 AXNT20 KNHC 162353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N42W TO 09N39W TO 13N33W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT WITH BROADER 700 MB TROUGHING TO THE NORTH AND WEST. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 32W-43W. EARLIER MORNING ASCAT DATA SHOWED THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE WAVE AT THE SURFACE WITH A PRONOUNCED SE TO NE WIND SHIFT...STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N72W TO 17N71W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WITH MOST ENERGY ALOFT REMAINING S OF 15N. A RELATIVELY FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL ENERGY IS NOTED BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND ANOTHER WAVE TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING AN OVERALL BROAD CYCLONIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED MODERATE ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA THIS EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 18N83W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO TRACK AT THE SURFACE AS NO NOTABLE TURNING OF THE WINDS ARE NOTED. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 82W-85W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. ...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 05N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N19W TO 04N25W TO 06N40W TO 01N50W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MID-OCEAN...ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 28W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 97W. THE OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. THE RIDGE IS GENERATING MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY INTO TUESDAY. THE ONLY CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WITHIN THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS E OF 84W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER AT THE SURFACE N OF 17N W OF 80W. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE NOTED THIS EVENING. NEAR THE MAXIMUM LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING TAILING SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 16N BETWEEN 75W-85W. OTHERWISE...TRADES REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED BETWEEN 67W-77W AND THE USUAL MAXIMUM OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...150 NM...OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N78W SW TO A BASE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N89W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH ALONG 72W AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DIFFLUENT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING N OF 18N W OF 70W. WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY REMAINS IN PLACE PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N66W SW TO 25N80W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N60W SW TO 29N69W TO 31N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE IS EVIDENT... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 70W- 79W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS NEARLY STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM 31N30W TO 27N40W TO 26N47W. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS FRACTURED AWAY ANALYZED FROM 25N51W TO 21N60W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE ATLC E OF 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN