000 AXNT20 KNHC 161716 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1615 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 3N41W TO 12N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A DISTINCT MAXIMUM NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS APPARENT AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH A PRONOUNCED SE TO NE WIND SHIFT INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH SHOWED THE WAVE TILTED FROM NE TO SW. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY SPEED UP IN MOVEMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ACCELERATION BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60- 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED FROM THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE MARACAIBO NEAR 9N71W TO THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N71W MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS NO LONGER TILTED FROM NW TO SE AND IS NOW MORE UPRIGHT. A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AT THE SURFACE IS ALSO NOTED BY BUOY AND NEARBY LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER WATER...HOWEVER AS IS TYPICAL WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER LAKE MARACAIBO. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA JUST E OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W TO GRAND CAYMAN NEAR 19N82W MOVING W AT A SLOW 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK AT THE SURFACE AS NO NOTABLE TURNING OF THE WINDS ARE NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 13N E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 79W/80W ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION MAY BE MORE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. CONTINUED SHOWERS AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE COMBINED FORCING OF THE WAVE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR 13N16W TO 5N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N19W TO 5N35W THEN RESUMES FROM 5N41W TO THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OR THE ITCZ IN THE ATLANTIC OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA FROM NEAR 9N78W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES W OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10.5N76W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN DIRECT ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE NE GULF NEAR 27N85W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E OF FLORIDA IN THE GULF EXTENDING TO THE S-SW ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA HELPING TO GENERATE CONVECTION. A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W TO THE N-NE ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING CONTROLS CONDITIONS IN THE GULF EXTENDING FROM ATLC HIGH PRES. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAINLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W AROUND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SW WINDS ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF IT HELPING TO PUMP UP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NE PACIFIC. DRY AND STABLE AIR IS FEEDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CARIB N OF 18N W OF 84W. A LESS PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HELPING TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS E OF A TROUGH WAVE AXIS DISCUSSED ABOVE. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SURFACE TROUGH MAY FORM SOON WITH WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT IF CURRENT CONDITIONS HOLD. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES...UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH 8-11 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED TOWARD THE ISLAND FROM THE W AROUND A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS COMBINED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SW...AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING BY S OF THE ISLAND WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING W OF THE ISLAND OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA AND SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED TO THE E OVER HAITI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION FROM NEAR 31N79W TO FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH AS NOTED BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT AT BUOYS AND NEARBY LAND STATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N W OF 77W DUE TO BOTH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A SUPPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS FORMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW NEAR 30N77W. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES. A WIND SHIFT WAS NOTED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. OTHERWISE LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED AS THEY CONTINUE TO THE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...IS NEARLY STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N32W TO 26N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND MAY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS N OF 27N W OF 70W AND ALSO INSIDE THE BAHAMAS...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY