000 AXNT20 KNHC 160010 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 00N36W TO 12N31W MOVING W AT 12-15 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A DISTINCT MAXIMUM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS APPARENT AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH A PRONOUNCED SE TO NE WIND SHIFT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY SPEED UP IN MOVEMENT IN ABOUT A DAY AS IT APPROACHES 40W WITH ACCELERATION BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 05N AND 10N. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 07N62W TO 17N68W W AT 15-17 KT. THE NW TO SE ORIENTED WAVE POSITION WAS EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT REPORTED BY SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM NEAR 11N80W TO NEAR EASTERN CUBA AT 20N75. THE WAVE WAS RELOCATED WESTWARD BASED UPON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...BUT REMAINS MOVING W AT 13-15 KT. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK AT THE SURFACE AS NO NOTABLE TURNING OF THE WINDS ARE NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED WITHIN 300 NM WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS SOUTH OF 17N. THE CONVECTION MAY BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. RAINFALL HAS BEEN NOTED AT SAN ANDRES ISLAND...BLUEFIELDS...PUERTO CABEZAS...AND JINOTEGA IN NICARAGUA...AND PUERTO LIMPERA...AND CATACAMAS IN HONDURAS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. CONTINUED SHOWERS AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE COMBINED FORCING OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 09N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N22W TO 07N30W THEN RESUMES FROM 05N36W TO 02N47W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OR THE ITCZ IN THE ATLANTIC. THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA NEAR FROM 09N78W TO 11N75W IN COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 29N84W. SE GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTION MAY BE LINKED TO A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING MAXIMUM IN MOISTURE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF DIURNALLY-FORCED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING TODAY OVER CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AIDED BY RATHER LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. SOME DRYING IS ANTICIPATED AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF 20N DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 78W AROUND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SW WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT HELPING TO PUMP UP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NE PACIFIC. DRY AND STABLE AIR IS FEEDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CARIB N OF 19N W OF 84W. A LESS PRONOUNCED MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HELPING TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SURFACE TROUGH MAY FORM SOON WITH WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS IF CONDITIONS HOLD. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES...UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES...EXCEPT PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TOWARD THE ISLAND FROM THE W AROUND A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS COMBINED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE BY JUST TO THE S OF THE ISLAND THROUGH MON WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION FROM NEAR 31N80W TO FLORIDA NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 72W. A COLD FRONT IS N OF THE AREA AND NE OF THE TROUGH. THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO CLIP ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE IMPACTS OTHER THAN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...IS NEARLY STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N34W TO 25N47W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N44W TO THE SW THROUGH 32N50W TO 28N65W TO 28N80W NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS W OF 70W AND INSIDE THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA/LEWITSKY