000 AXNT20 KNHC 151646 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1615 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 1N34W TO 11N21W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS LOCATED TO THE N OF THE WAVE BUT CONDITIONS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE WAVE ARE MORE UNSTABLE ALLOWING FOR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM AS IS DESCRIBED BELOW. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY SPEED UP IN MOVEMENT BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES 40W WITH ACCELERATION BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 7N62W TO 18N62W W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE POSITION WAS EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BY A WIND SHIFT REPORTED BY LESSER ANTILLES OBSERVATIONS. A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING FROM THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM NEAR 9N69W TO 17N69W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK AT THE SURFACE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HOWEVER A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. ...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO 8N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N20W TO 6N30W THEN RESUMES FROM 4N36W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF A LINE FROM 8N25W TO 6N33W TO 2N41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL MEXICO. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE CAROLINAS TO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF W OF 87W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS DRAPPED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE NE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N E OF 90W. OTHERWISE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NE GULF WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 78W AROUND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SW WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT HELPING TO PUMP UP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NE PACIFIC. DRY AND STABLE AIR IS FEEDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CARIB N OF 19N W OF 84W. A LESS PRONOUNCED MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HELPING TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SURFACE TROUGH MAY FORM SOON WITH WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS IF CONDITIONS HOLD. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES...UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND SEAS OF 8-12 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TOWARD THE ISLAND FROM THE W AROUND A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS COMBINED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE BY JUST TO THE S OF THE ISLAND THROUGH MON WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION FROM NEAR 31N78W TO FLORIDA JUST N OF DAYTONA BEACH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 72W. A COLD FRONT IS N OF THE AREA AND N OF THE TROUGH. THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO CLIP ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE IMPACTS OTHER THAN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...IS NEARLY STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N35W TO 25N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N45W TO THE SW THROUGH 32N50W TO 28N65W TO 27.5N78W NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS N OF 27N W OF 70W AND INSIDE THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 3- 5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY