000 AXNT20 KNHC 150542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SIN JUN 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N28W TO 2N29W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 26W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 16N61W TO 5N58W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N67W INTO VENEZUELA NEAR 8N67W MOVING W AT 15 KT. . NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N20W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N20W TO 7N28W THEN RESUMES FROM 6N31W TO 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N E OF 23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO...WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF W OF 90W. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WITH MAINLY 1-3 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS BEGINNING TO BECOME SW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF IS AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD RIDGE WAS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W. STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER CUBA HAS DISSIPATED. LARGE AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION COVERS ALL BUT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ALONG WITH 8-12 FT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N70W TO 23N71W WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...EXCEPT 1-3 FT SEAS INSIDE THE BAHAMA BANK. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N36W TO 24N52W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE THEY MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE RIDGING AND MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ DGS