000 AXNT20 KNHC 142357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 2N26W TO 10N27W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY VERY STABLE AND DRY AIR DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NW. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE TO THE WEST BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES 30W AND THE HEART OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AND TRACK AT THE SURFACE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 6N55W TO 15N57W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE WAS MOVED TO THE W OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION ON THE 12Z ANALYSIS...AND IS REFLECTED IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO VENEZUELA NEAR 09N65W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE WAS POSITIONED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 09N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N21W TO 7N25W THEN RESUMES FROM 5N28W TO 02N40W TO 03N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W AND 30W IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NOTED ALONG 26W/27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 07N TO 10N TO 17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO 27N91W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N86W TO 23N92W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY BE CUTTING OFF WITH A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N90W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF W OF 91W AND PUSHING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 25N85W...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 26N90W TO 25N93W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST WHILE THE DEVELOPING UPPER CYCLONE SHIFTS WEST. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGING IS EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC AT THE SURFACE. THE RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WITH MAINLY 1-3 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS BEGINNING TO BUCKLE AS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE GULF IS AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD RIDGE WAS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W. SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN HONDURAS...GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING OVER CUBA...WESTERN JAMAICA AND INTERIOR HISPANIOLA. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WHICH COVERED THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING A VAST AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 16N EXTENDING TO 70W. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ALONG WITH 8-12 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE INTERIOR OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N62W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH 27N70W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N71W TO 23N74W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BETWEEN JUPITER AND VERO BEACH AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NW OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF OF MEXICO. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...EXCEPT 1-3 FT SEAS INSIDE THE BAHAMA BANK. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N35W TO 25N53W WITH A REINFORCING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N40W TO 29N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE DEFINITION WHILE THEY MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE RIDGING AND MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB