000 AXNT20 KNHC 141154 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W FROM 10N-2N MOVING WEST 10-15 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W FROM 12N-4N. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLAND EXTENDS FROM 17N63W TO 11N63W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN...THEN MOVE WNW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE. ABUNDANT AFRICAN DUST FOLLOWS THIS WAVE. PART OF THIS DUST IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO 12N16W TO 7N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 5N26W TO 3N35W TO 3N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N E OF 20W AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 25W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THEN A WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF AND PERSIST SUN NIGH THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT ARE NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE GULF TODAY AND AMPLIFY. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES NE OF AREA AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN 20-25 KT TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 10-12 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STRONG TRADE WINDS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. COMPUTER MODEL INDICATES INCREASING MOISTURE ON MON LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK RIDGE FROM 32N60W TO S FLORIDA DOMINATES MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIFTING TO ALONG 27N-28N BY SUN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N77W TO W CUBA. AN UPPER TROUGH E OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N73W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO EASTERN CUBA. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 60W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DEEPENS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N35W TO 28N44W THEN CONTINUES AS A TROUGH TO 24N55W. A WELL DEFINED BAND OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER RIDGE. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ DGS