000 AXNT20 KNHC 140536 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W FROM 10N-2N MOVING WEST 10-15 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W FROM 12N-3N. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLAND EXTENDS FROM 17N62W TO 10N62W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN...THEN MOVE W NW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE. ABUNDANT AFRICAN DUST FOLLOWS THIS WAVE. PART OF THIS DUST IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN APPROACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ALONG 83W S OF 16N EXTENDS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA INTO THE EPAC. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 10N OVER PANAMA AND SE COSTA RICA. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO 11N16W TO 7N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 5N26W TO 3N35W TO 4 N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N E OF 20W AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 25W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO 26N96W. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THEN A WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF AND PERSIST SUN NIGH THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT ARE NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE. THIS FEATURE IS THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF TODAY AND AMPLIFY. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES NE OF AREA AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN 20-25 KT TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 10-12 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STRONG TRADE WINDS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED E OF FLORIDA EXTENDS SW ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... THE SHOWERS EARLIER HAVE DISSIPATED. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. COMPUTER MODEL INDICATES INCREASING MOISTURE ON MON LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... RIDGE FROM 32N60W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DOMINATES MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIFTING TO ALONG 27N-28N BY SUN. A MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED E OF FLORIDA AND EXTENDS FROM 31N77W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS INTO WESTERN CUBA. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND COVERS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 60W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DEEPENS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N36W TO 27N48W THEN CONTINUES AS A TROUGH TO 21N59W. A WELL DEFINED BAND OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER RIDGE. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 31N19W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ DGS