000 AXNT20 KNHC 132342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 10N MOVING WEST 10-15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE AS NOTED ON THE TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 11N. SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THERE IS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 12N50W TO 08N51W LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN VORTEX OF THE WAVE MOVING AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE EDGE OF AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWS MODERATE NE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO JUST W OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A MODEST SURGE OF MOISTENED AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN...THEN MOVE W NW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MAINLY S OF PUERTO RICO...THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. ABUNDANT AFRICAN DUST FOLLOWS THIS WAVE AS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM UW-CIMSS. PART OF THIS DUST IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W S OF 16N EXTENDS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA INTO THE EPAC. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 10N OVER PANAMA AND SE COSTA RICA. STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVER PARTS OF COSTA RICA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND NOW MODERATE CONVECTION IS FLARED UP OVER PARTS OF NICARAGUA. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA EARLY TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10.5N15W TO 06N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N25W TO 2N35W TO 2N45W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N E OF 20W...FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 20W-30W AND S OF 06N BETWEEN 30W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WATERS WITH A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER SE LOUISIANA. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF AND PERSIST SUN NIGH THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT ARE NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAINLY N OF 26N E OF 88W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE NW GULF. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF ON SAT WHILE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES NE OF AREA AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE EACH NIGHT. SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 10-12 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STRONG TRADE WINDS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED E OF FLORIDA EXTENDS SW ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS CUBA...PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN CUBA. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. COMPUTER MODEL INDICATES INCREASING MOISTURE ON MON LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE ALONG 26N-27N DOMINATES MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND... LIFTING TO ALONG 27N-28N BY SUN. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED E OF FLORIDA AND EXTENDS FROM 31N77W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS INTO WESTERN CUBA. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND COVERS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 60W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DEEPENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 70W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N39W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 27N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO 20N59W. A WELL DEFINED BAND OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER RIDGE. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS AND LIKELY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 34W-43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR