000
AXNT20 KNHC 131116
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                        
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND A 
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-75W WITH 
WINDS 30-35 KT AND SEAS 9-12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 
70W-80W AND S OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-70W WINDS 20-30 KT AND SEAS 8-
10 FT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N21W TO 3N19W. THE 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A 
SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK...THUS THE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS  
BEING LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 8N39W TO 1N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 40W-43W.
 
ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N57W TO 2N57W MOVING W 15 KT. 
THE WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SAHARAN DUST LAYER 
OUTBREAK...THUS LACK OF CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS PANAMA WITH AXIS 
FROM 13N81W TO 4N81W MOVING W 15 KT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                       
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR 9N13W 
TO 9N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
6N21W TO 4N38W. IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 
4N41W TO 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N E OF 
16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF AND 
PROVIDES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ACROSS 
THE EASTERN GULF. DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF WITH STABLE 
CONDITIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA TO S TEXAS PROVIDING SE WIND FLOW OF 5-10 KT TO MOST OF 
THE AREA. RIDGING AND MOSTLY RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
BASE EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 15 KT ACROSS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE THE AREA DISCUSSED IN 
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 
TWO INFLUENCED BY A DRY AIRMASS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA 
PENINSULA. THE EARLIER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFF THE COAST 
OF S AND CENTRAL FLORIDA HAVE DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE...THE SW 
NORTH ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING 
EXTENDING FROM 32N56W TO 26N60W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 
FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS A PORTION OF THE 
CENTRAL ATLC WITH ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 
32N40W TO 24N54W. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH PRES WITH AXIS FROM 
32N27W TO 25N41W. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS