000 AXNT20 KNHC 130001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 15N18W TO 3N18W. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK...THUS THE CONVECTION IS BEING LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N WITHIN 140 NM WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 8N36W TO 1N36W. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK ENGULFS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 34W-38W. A SECOND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N54W TO 1N55W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK...HOWEVER DUST AND DRY AIR EXTENDS INTO THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS SUPPORTING THE LACK OF CONVECTION. A FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING PANAMA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N78W TO 4N78W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 11N W OF 80W AS WELL N OF 3N E OF 82W AND OVER PANAMA. ELSEWHERE...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR HINDERS CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 12N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N20W TO 4N27W TO 3N34W. IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 3N38W TO 1N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 22W- 27W AS WELL AS FROM 2N-5N W OF 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF AND PROVIDES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 27N E OF 88W AS WELL AS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL-EASTERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO N OF 28N BETWEEN 90W- 95W...COINCIDING WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF IS MAINTAINING STABLE CONDITIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A PAIR OF HIGH PRES LOCATED IN THE SW N ATLC INTO THE GULF AND PROVIDES SE WIND FLOW OF 5-10 KT TO MOST OF THE BASIN. RIDGING AND MOSTLY RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH BASE EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS NW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND CENTRAL HAITI. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE SW BASIN...SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE...A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS GREATER PORTIONS OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS REACH A MAXIMUM OF 20-30 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW OVER COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ...HISPANIOLA... AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED N-NW OF THE ISLAND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL HAITI AND NW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO INFLUENCED BY A DRY AIRMASS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA IS PROVIDING FOR AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SW N ATLC THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 72W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. OTHERWISE...THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM 1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 27N65W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N58W. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N44W TO 26N50W TO 21N58W. OTHERWISE...A 1027 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 39N19W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO 23N47W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR