000 AXNT20 KNHC 121807 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED BASED ON CURRENT GOES-R PROVING GROUND IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 8N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD INTO FRENCH GUIANA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE ITCZ CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD INTO COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...POSSIBLY MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 7N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N22W TO 4N33W AND 2N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA... ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...FROM 86W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN PARTS OF FLORIDA...BETWEEN 76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 86W IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N65W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 24N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 27N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGVX...KVBS...KMDJ. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON ACROSS THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES...TO BEAUMONT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND IN THE MOBILE ALABAMA METROPOLITAN AREA. SCATTERED CLOUD LAYERS ARE MIXED WITH SOME OBSERVATIONS OF MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN PERRY FLORIDA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA TO BROOKSVILLE. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 24N84.5W TO 29N78W, ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE GEORGIA-TO-EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO- WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA. FEW MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT- AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ONE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND THAT A SECOND ONE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.99 IN TRINIDAD...0.65 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...0.51 IN MERIDA IN MEXICO...AND 0.02 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 85W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...AND ALONG THE BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14.5N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 83W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AREAS OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 29N48W TO 24N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N59W TO A SECOND 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N65W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 24N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 27N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 20N41W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER AND 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT