000 AXNT20 KNHC 111804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 20W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W...AND IN THE ITCZ FROM 7N SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD IN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...AND ALONG 70W IN VENEZUELA FROM 8N TO 9N. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA-BISSAU REACHING ITS COASTLINE NEAR 12N15W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 7N22W 5N27W 5N30W 3N22W. THE ITCZ IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 34W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W...COVERING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE IS IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FLORIDA AND IN PARTS OF WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...FROM MISSOURI TO LOUISIANA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARE INLAND. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THE TROUGH IS IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND 89W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK IN GENERAL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N68W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 20N98W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGBK...KIKT...KDLP...AND K1B7. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT...WESLACO TEXAS IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND IN VICTORIA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED IN FOURCHON AND GALLIANO IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT PASCAGOULA IN MISSISSIPPI...AND IN THE MOBILE ALABAMA METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM PENSACOLA TO THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND IN VALPARAISO AND MARY ESTHER. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS BEING REPORTED IN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING OBSERVED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN APALACHICOLA. IT HAS BEEN RAINING OFF AND ON DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF OBSERVATIONS IN PERRY FLORIDA. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF BROOKSVILLE FOR THE NEXT-TO-LAST OBSERVATION...AND RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER CURRENTLY ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF OBSERVATIONS FROM SARASOTA TO PUNTA GORDA AND TO FORT MYERS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM THE FLORIDA TROUGH...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD. THE WHOLE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS COVERED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA TOWARD VENEZUELA. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SECOND ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL FORM...AND ONE WILL END UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND THE OTHER ONE WILL END UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT 420 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.65 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...0.04 IN MERIDA IN MEXICO...0.03 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.02 IN TRINIDAD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 79W AND 80.5W. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 27N52W...TO 14N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 28N50W TO 25N57W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 25N57W TO 27N63W AND 31N65W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 24N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 250 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W 27N46W 22N61W. FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 66W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.66 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...AND 0.64 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N26W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 29N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N23W TO 26N34W TO 21N56W AND 21N60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 9N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT