000
AXNT20 KNHC 111119
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 12N18W TO 
4N16W. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
11N44W TO 2N43W MOVING W 15 KT. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER 
OUTBREAK ARE NOTED IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS SUPPORTING A 
LACK OF CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 10N59W TO 3N60W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                       
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO 
8N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
8N25W TO 4N42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL CUBA. OVERALL DRY AIR 
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IS MAINTAINING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS 
ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL RIGHT ALONG THE 
TEXAS COAST WITH THE E PORTION SLIPPING JUST INTO THE WESTERN 
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS BEFORE BEING FORCE BACK INLAND BY A 
REBUILDING RIDGE WITH THE RIDGE MAINTAINING CONTROL THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH BASE 
EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OFF THE 
COAST OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER 
OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN 
THUS SUPPORTING FAIR BUT HAZY WEATHER. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY 
TRADE WINDS AND 8-11 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 
3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 
TWO INFLUENCED BY A DRY AIRMASS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING 
EXTENDING FROM 1020 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 33N60W TO 27N79W. FARTHER 
EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC 
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N53W TO 26N57W. A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM 32N43W TO 28N51W. OTHERWISE...1023 MB HIGH PRES 
NEAR 32N26W WITH A RIDGE TO 25N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS