000
AXNT20 KNHC 110554
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 12N17W TO 
4N15W. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
12N43W TO 1N42W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. 
PATCHES OF DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK ARE NOTED 
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS SUPPORTING A LACK OF 
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 10N58W TO 2N59W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. 

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOVED W OF 
THE AREA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                       
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 
10N20W TO 6N29W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 6N28W TO 4N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL CUBA. TROUGHING ALOFT IS 
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE E COAST OF THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA. AS WELL AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OFF THE COAST 
OF SE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION 
IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DRY AIR 
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IS MAINTAINING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS 
ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL RIGHT ALONG THE 
TEXAS COAST WITH THE E PORTION SLIPPING JUST INTO THE WESTERN 
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS BEFORE BEING FORCE BACK INLAND BY A 
REBUILDING RIDGE WITH THE RIDGE MAINTAINING CONTROL THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH BASE 
EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OFF THE 
COAST OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER 
OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN 
THUS SUPPORTING FAIR BUT HAZY WEATHER. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY 
TRADEWINDS AND 8-11 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 
3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
EARLIER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND 
HAVE DISSIPATED. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER 
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO INFLUENCED BY A DRY AIRMASS TO MOVE ACROSS 
THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING 
EXTENDING FROM 1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 26N63W TO 32N62W. FARTHER 
EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC 
SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE FROM 30N45W TO 
23N53W...AND A SECOND FROM A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 28N54W TO 27N62W. 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N48W TO 30N53W. OTHERWISE...1023 MB 
HIGH PRES NEAR 31N29W WITH A RIDGE TO 20N51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS