000
AXNT20 KNHC 110004
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 1N41W 
TO 13N42W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. PATCHES 
OF DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK ARE NOTED IN THE 
WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS SUPPORTING A LACK OF CONVECTION.   

TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 1N56W TO 9N56W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ASSOCIATED WITH IT ARE S OF 10N BETWEEN 51W-59W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 14N81W ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 8N81W TO 4N79W MOVING W NEAR 20 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 
16N W OF 78W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                       
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 
7N21W TO 5N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 5N28W TO 3N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 16W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EASTERN CUBA. TROUGHING 
ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
AS WELL AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS...INCLUDING N OF 28N BETWEEN 
88W-91W AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON 
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS S OF 22N E OF 91W. 
OTHERWISE...OVERALL DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IS MAINTAINING 
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 25N61W INTO THE 
GULF AND PROVIDES S-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT. A COLD FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO STALL RIGHT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH THE PORTION E 
OF THERE SLIPPING JUST INTO THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS 
BEFORE BEING FORCE BACK INLAND BY A REBUILDING RIDGE WITH THE 
RIDGE MAINTAINING CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH BASE 
EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO 
SUPPORT SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND 
ADJACENT WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHICH 
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 17N W OF 
75W. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK 
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN THUS 
SUPPORTING FAIR BUT HAZY WEATHER. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY 
TRADEWINDS AND 6-10 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 
3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                
AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE 
ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO INFLUENCED BY A DRY AIRMASS TO 
MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF IS PROVIDING FOR AN 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SW N ATLC THUS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS...AND THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. OTHERWISE...THE SW NORTH 
ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING 
FROM 1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 25N61W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 
34N62W. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE 
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE FROM 
30N50W TO 27N62W...AND A SECOND FROM 30N46W TO 25N52W. A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST TO THE NW FROM 30N54W TO 
30N59W. OTHERWISE...1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 29N31W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE TO 24N51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR