000 AXNT20 KNHC 101053 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N38W TO 11N35W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS BEEN EASY TO TRACK WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING LARGE CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE AXIS. DRY AIR IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE THAT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 30W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N54W TO 08N53W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS LOW LATITUDE AND LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE ITCZ. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 51W-56W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N76W TO 12N74W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW LATITUDE AND LOW AMPLITUDE AND HAS BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THOUGH SUBTLE...IT IS EVIDENT THROUGH A LONG TERM LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 74W-78W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 09N21W TO 07N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N26W TO 07N38W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 09W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N19W TO 04N32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE SE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR 30N88W SE TO A BASE OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 24N E OF 84W. ELSEWHERE...LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 26N/27N TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH LIGHTER WINDS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF E OF 88W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN REGION THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS AIDING TO MAINTAIN AREAS OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND CUBA. FARTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 09N78W PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 78W-85W. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH TRADEWINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 KT...STRONGEST BETWEEN 67W-78W DUE TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. ...HISPANIOLA... AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NW OF THE ISLAND PROVIDING FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE MORE ENHANCED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER IN THE DAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PROVIDING FOR AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 27N W OF 74W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 30N59W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N50W TO 31N62W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ALSO ANALYZED SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...ONE FROM 32N47W TO 26N53W AND THE SECOND FROM 31N53W TO 27N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE EASTERN- MOST SURFACE TROUGH...AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 53W-62W WITH THE WESTERN-MOST SURFACE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N31W INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS N OF THE ITCZ REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN