000 AXNT20 KNHC 100542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N34W TO 16N33W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS BEEN EASY TO TRACK WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING LARGE CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE AXIS. DRY AIR IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE THAT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 31W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N53W TO 10N52W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS LOW LATITUDE AND LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE ITCZ ALONG 04N. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 48W-54W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N73W TO 12N72W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW LATITUDE AND LOW AMPLITUDE AND HAS BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THOUGH SUBTLE...IT IS EVIDENT THROUGH A LONG TERM LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO 15N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N22W TO 07N34W TO 05N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 11W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 18W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE SE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR SE TO A BASE OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 26N/27N TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH LIGHTER WINDS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF E OF 86W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS AIDING TO MAINTAIN AREAS OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND INLAND CUBA. FARTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 11N76W PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W-85W. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH TRADEWINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 KT...STRONGEST BETWEEN 67W-78W DUE TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. ...HISPANIOLA... AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NW OF THE ISLAND PROVIDING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY. WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE MORE ENHANCED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER IN THE DAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PROVIDING FOR AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 26N W OF 74W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 31N61W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 33N51W TO 31N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 53W-63W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N31W INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS N OF THE ITCZ REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN