000 AXNT20 KNHC 100004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N31W 9N32W 1N32W MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN EASY TO TRACK AS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT LARGE CYCLONIC TURNING WITH THIS WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL JUST TO THE EAST OF FRENCH GUIANA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS IS A LOW LATITUDE AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH PERTURBATION EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ITCZ FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN BRAZIL FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM 12N SOUTHWARD INTO VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 7N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 69W AND 77W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W TO 15N19W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 8N23W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 7N30W 7N34W 7N40W AND 6N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W WESTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N86W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO... ESPECIALLY FROM 90W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 90W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM OF THE FLORIDA COAST FROM 85W EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AND/OR HAVE BEEN IN FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 30N DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING FROM KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS TEXAS FROM 30N NORTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AND/OR HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM 28N NORTHWARD... ACROSS LOUISIANA...AND INTO THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF MISSISSIPPI. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N84W IN THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK IN GENERAL. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KHQI...KGBK...AND KMDJ. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE...AND IN ALICE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN VICTORIA...BAY CITY...LIGHT RAIN IS IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...AND IN BEAUMONT. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS...RAIN AND SOME THUNDER...ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA... AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AT THE MOBILE ALABAMA DOWNTOWN AIRPORT...IN CRESTVIEW IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAIN ENDED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO IN BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA...AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF FORT MYERS. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS WIND REGIME IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO 24N86W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FROM 15N NORTHWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO- WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 69W AND 71W...AND IN CUBA FROM EAST TO WEST. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN BARAHONA AND IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS..AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A RIDGE TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST- TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY ENDS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.19 IN TRINIDAD...0.09 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.03 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 85W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...AND ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N61W TO 28N61W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 30N59W AND TO 29N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 66W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 1.24 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.07 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.06 AT FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N39W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N60W AND TO 23N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS BETWEEN 33W AND 60W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD FROM 60W WESTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N35W...TO 24N53W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO 26N80W ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W...EXCEPT NEAR THE 32N55W 30N59W 29N66W STATIONARY FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 19N TO THE EAST OF 48W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 49W AND 58W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT