000 AXNT20 KNHC 091721 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS NEAR 02N31W TO 18N29W MOVING W AT 15- 20 KT. THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN EASY TO TRACK AS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT LARGE CYCLONIC TURNING WITH THIS WAVE. WITH DRY AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE...CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE. AS TYPICAL WITH TROPICAL WAVES MOVING OVER THE ATLANTIC...THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 22W-29W. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS NEAR 02N48W TO 12N48W MOVING W AT 10- 15 KT. THIS IS A LOW LATITUDE AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH PERTURBATION EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. N OF THE ITCZ...THERE IS A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS A RESULT... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ REGION FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS NEAR 04N70W TO 11N69W MOVING W AT 10- 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO LOW LATITUDE AND LOW AMPLITUDE. THOUGH SUBTLE...IT IS EVIDENT THROUGH A LONG TERM SATELLITE LOOP. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 07N20W TO 06N29W. IT THEN RESUMES FROM 06N32W TO 05N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 21W AND 27W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVAILS OVER THE SE GULF WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE YUCATAN. LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GULF WATERS IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE OF 1017 MB CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OTHERWISE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW PREVAILS...IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND 10-20 KT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED S OF 12N OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED LOW TOPPED TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. TRADEWINDS IN THE 20- 25 KT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...15-20 KT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 10-15 KT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... EAST WEST ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PREVAILS N OF HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING TO SUPPORT A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 38N51W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW SW ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N59W THEN EXTENDING WSW TO NEAR 30N67W. THERE IS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 30N35W WESTWARD TO ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. WINDS OVER THE SW N ATLC ARE IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS N OF THE ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AL