000 AXNT20 KNHC 091046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N29W TO 13N28W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ON VISIBLE METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE WAVE EXHIBITS CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS WITH GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATING THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-34W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 28W-32W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N46W TO 11N47W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WHILE LESS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAN THE WAVE TO THE EAST ALONG 28W...SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODELS BETWEEN 44W-50W. SINCE DYNAMICS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ REGION WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N40W TO 06N48W TO 08N55W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N69W TO 12N68W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATING VERY WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 08N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N19W TO 05N29W TO 05N47W TO 04N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 11W...AND FROM 09N- 12N BETWEEN 15W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N- 07N BETWEEN 21W-27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N40W TO 06N48W TO 08N55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A MID- LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 85W WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 85W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BENIGN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N84W THAT IS ALSO MOSTLY ENVELOPED IN DRY AIR ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N83W. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE HIGH CENTER WHERE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE OCCURRING...ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE MOST MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS REMAINING FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 63W-90W. A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA PROVIDING ENOUGH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N89W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-84W IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N/10N. FINALLY...TRADES PERSIST GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS POSSIBLE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 68W-78W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WHILE A RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY STREAMS ALONG 20N FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EASTWARD TO OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 20N68W. THIS MID-LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE... CLOUDINESS...AND GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. WITH E-SE TRADES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND A RELATIVELY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF THE ISLAND... CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 37N55W THAT SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N56W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER SW TO 32N65W BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 30N/31N TO 76W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND THE ADJACENT ATLC COASTAL WATERS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N39W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN