000 AXNT20 KNHC 090556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N27W TO 14N26W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ON INFRARED METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE WAVE EXHIBITS CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS WITH GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATING THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-33W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 22W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N46W TO 09N44W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WHILE LESS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAN THE WAVE TO THE EAST ALONG 27W...VERY SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODELS BETWEEN 41W-48W. SINCE DYNAMICS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ REGION WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N41W TO 06N47W TO 08N53W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N67W TO 13N66W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WITH GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATING VERY WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER VENEZUELA AND PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WAVE AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 66W-70W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 06N28W TO 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 13W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N41W TO 06N47W TO 08N53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A MID- LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 86W WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 86W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BENIGN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N86W THAT IS ALSO MOSTLY ENVELOPED IN DRY AIR ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N86W. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE HIGH CENTER WHERE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE OCCURRING...ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE MOST MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS REMAINING FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 80W-90W...AND N OF 17N BETWEEN 63W-80W. A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA PROVIDING ENOUGH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N89W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-86W IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N. FINALLY...TRADES PERSIST GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 09/0140 UTC FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 69W-75W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WHILE A RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY STREAMS ALONG 19N FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EASTWARD TO OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N68W. THIS MID-LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE... CLOUDINESS...AND GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. WITH E-SE TRADES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND A RELATIVELY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF THE ISLAND... CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 35N60W THAT SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N60W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 32N66W BECOMING STATIONARY INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N73W TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 72W-79W...AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND THE ADJACENT ATLC COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN