000 AXNT20 KNHC 090005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ITCZ FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 35W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 9N42W 5N44W 1N45W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ITCZ FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N64W 7N65W 3N66W IN VENEZUELA MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD...TO THE SOUTH OF 16N60W 13N70W 11N83W. SCATTERED STRONG IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA...REACHING THE COAST OF MAURITANIA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 6N26W 5N41W 5N46W 5N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 6W AND 8W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N85W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO... ESPECIALLY FROM 90W EASTWARD...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN GENERAL. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM 90W EASTWARD. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER TO THE WEST OF 90W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.72 IN VERACRUZ...AND 0.07 IN MERIDA...IN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGBK...KSPR...AND KMDJ. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...TOWARD THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN FLORIDA FROM 26N NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF 83W...AND IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...AND IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N71W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG...IS OCCURRING IN CUBA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BECOMING WESTERLY WIND FLOW AS IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM MEXICO TO NICARAGUA...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N/15N. THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE GREATER ANTILLES. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. LIGHT RAIN AND MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A RIDGE. A TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...DURING THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH MOVES FROM A POSITION THAT IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS...MOVING EASTWARD STILL TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...ENDING UP PASSING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 64W/65W BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST- TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY ENDS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.22 IN GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.01 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 83W/84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER INTO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO 27N68W TO 22N76W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 31N71W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ABOUT 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N NORTHWARD. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N77W TO 33N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N76W 27N79W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 32N59W 24N66W 23N78W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN FLORIDA 26N NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF 83W...AND IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...AND IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N43W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 37W AND 57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 24N28W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N41W...TO 29N58W... THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 78W...EXCEPT NEAR THE 29N76W 27N79W SURFACE TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 14N TO 19N TO THE EAST OF 39W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT