000 AXNT20 KNHC 081727 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 01N23W TO 16N21W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS VERY EVIDENT ON THE DAKAR SOUNDING ON SATURDAY MORNING...AND ON SATELLITE HOVMOLLERS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LARGE CYCLONIC TURNING WITH THIS WAVE. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 21W-27W. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 02N43W TO 13N42W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LOW LATITUDE AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH PERTURBATION EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS LIMITED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 03N64W TO 13N63W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO LOW LATITUDE AND LOW AMPLITUDE. THOUGH SUBTLE...IT IS EVIDENT THROUGH A LONG TERM SATELLITE LOOP. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 05N26W TO 05N41W. IT THEN CONTINUES FROM 05N46W TO 04N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 33W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL NW WINDS ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE ARE HELPING CREATE A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND FAIR CONDITIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER TOUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF. THIS IS MAINTAINING ANTICYCLONIC WINDS FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS ARE IN THE NW GULF AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. OTHERWISE S TO SE WINDS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE ARE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES JUST NW OF THE AREA OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. TRADEWINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...10-15 KT IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-10 KT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE NW OF HISPANIOLA WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS NE-SW ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH...ROUGHLY FROM A LINE 31N66W TO 26N76W AND THEN ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS HELPED FOR A SURFACE TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM 30N75W TO S FLORIDA. THE TROUGH IS WEAKENING AND EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WATERS ASSOCIATED TO THE TROUGH HAS DECREASED. CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N42W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO NEAR 27N72W. LIGHT WINDS ARE FOUND ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WITH A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR N OF THE ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AL