000 AXNT20 KNHC 081044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N21W TO 14N21W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ON VISIBLE METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE WAVE EXHIBITS CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS WITH GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATING THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING AND A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 19W-28W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ REGION WITH ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 21W-27W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N41W TO 09N40W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WHILE LESS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAN THE WAVE TO THE EAST ALONG 21W...VERY SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODELS BETWEEN 38W-43W. SINCE DYNAMICS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS VERY STABLE AIR MASS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N63W TO 12N63W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATING VERY WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA AND THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WAVE AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 06N23W TO 04N41W TO 02N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 21W-27W...AND FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 41W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A MID- LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 20N W OF 87W WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 87W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BENIGN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N86W THAT IS ALSO MOSTLY ENVELOPED IN DRY AIR ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N85W. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE HIGH CENTER WHERE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE OCCURRING...ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 70W WITH MOST MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA PROVIDING ENOUGH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W TO 15N83W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA. OTHERWISE...E OF 70W...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ADVECTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. FINALLY...TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 08/0202 UTC WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WHILE A RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST OF THE ISLAND CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. WITH E-SE TRADES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND A RELATIVELY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF THE ISLAND...CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 37N70W TO ANOTHER MAXIMUM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N79W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N70W THAT EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N77W TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND FROM 25N- 30N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLAND FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 68W-78W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN