000 AXNT20 KNHC 071756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 12N16W TO 5N16W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT NEAR 9N. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W. A WEAK AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC ALONG 35W FROM 4N-10N. POSITION OF THE WAVE IS BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...TPW ANIMATION AND HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM. VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDS THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N59W TO 07N60W...MOVING W-NW AT 15-20 KT. CONVECTION IS SEEN MAINLY WITHIN 130 NM AHEAD OF THE AXIS S OF 12N. TRINIDAD REPORTED 2.4 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. THIS FEATURE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE AS SEEN ON THE TPW ANIMATION. MOISTURE RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM UW-CIMMS CONTINUES TO SHOWS AN OUTBREAK OF AFRICAN DUST JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 7-9 FT PER AN ALTIMETER PASS FOLLOW THE WAVE. IT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARDS TO THE S OF 14N THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN SUN...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO GUINEA BISSAU WHERE IT IS INTERRUPTED BY A TROPICAL WAVE THAT CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 6N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W TO 5N38W TO 5N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 16W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 25W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS YESTERDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAD MOVED FARTHER INLAND AND IS DISSIPATING. THE LOW PRES CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 96.5W AT 07/1200 UTC. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE REPORTED THAT THE CITY OF VERACRUZ RECORDED 7.1 INCHES OF RAIN...180 MM...FOLLOWED BY HUIXTEPEC IN THE STATE OF OAXACA WITH 2.9 INCHES OF RAIN...73.4 MM. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS STILL NOTED OVER THE SW GULF... INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1020 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W. THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CLIP THE NE GULF TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS WILL SHIFT E OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALOFT...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WHILE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY S OF 22N. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE MEXICO BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED IN THE EPAC NEAR 16N100W. CARIBBEAN SEA... ATLC HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE WITH LIGHTER WINDS JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK HIGH PRES CELL LOCATED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...EASTERN CUBA AND PARTS OF JAMAICA. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN TRADE WIND FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND MOST OF THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP OVER PARTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT- WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER HISPANIOLA YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND NOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA LIMITING THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY ON MON. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODEL TO REMAIN S OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ON SUN. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE AS IT REACHES JAMAICA BY LATE MON. ...HISPANIOLA... A MORE DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE ISLAND DURING THE WEEKEND LIMITING THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS THROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E ACROSS THE ATLC FORECAST WATERS N OF 28N ON SUN...PASSING E OF 65W ON MON. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NE PART OF THE REGION AND STRETCHES FROM 31N14W TO 26N27W. HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N44W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH TO THE SE TO NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ALSO TO THE SW TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COUPLE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE LOCATED NEAR 22N68W AND THE OTHER NEAR 23N63W...ARE GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLC WATERS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BASIN AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR