000 AXNT20 KNHC 071055 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE HAVE A CLEAR-CUT INVERTED-V SIGNAL AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THERE IS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FURTHERMORE...THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 4N-11N E OF 17W. TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 4N59W TO 13N58W...MOVING W-NW NEAR 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE LIES IN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK...WHICH DRY AIR SUPPORT THE LACK OF CONVECTION E OF ITS AXIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY OF WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW INDICATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE W OF THE AXIS WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 58W-62W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO SENEGAL WHERE IT IS INTERRUPTED BY A TROPICAL WAVE THAT CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 7N16W TO 5N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 5N22W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N31W TO 5N40W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 19W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS INLAND SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N96W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS REGION IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 21N W OF 91W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER SOUTHERN GULF S OF 23N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. REMNANTS OF A FORMER SQUALL LINE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 86W. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEING ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N83W. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROVIDING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITH E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT. BESIDES THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SW GULF...SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE N-NW BASIN IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INCLUDING CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS EXTEND TO THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THESE TERRITORIES AS WELL AS N OF 17N W OF 80...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE SW BASIN...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 10N BETWEEN 75W-83W. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 65W. A TONGUE OF DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 67W-77W WHERE WIND INCREASES TO 20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE N-NW BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE SE CARIBBEAN BASIN LATER TODAY. ...HISPANIOLA... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSIST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE REMNANTS OF A FORMER SQUALL LINE CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 75W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N16W TO 27N26W TO 29N36W WITH NO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 17N WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR