000 AXNT20 KNHC 070559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND A SHORT-WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR VERA CRUZ MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS JUST INLAND NEAR 19N96W. SOME CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CLOSENESS OF THE CENTER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS, ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES, OVER PORTIONS OF E-SE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 2N35W TO 11N32W. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK ENTERED THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT EARLIER TODAY AND DISSIPATED THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ITS SIGNAL IT IS BARELY DISCERNIBLE ON BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE. TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM INLAND FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N53W TO 12N53W...MOVING W-NW NEAR 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE LIES IN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK...WHICH DRY AIR SUPPORT THE LACK OF CONVECTION E OF ITS AXIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY OF WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW INDICATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE W OF THE AXIS WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED S OF 13N BETWEEN 53W-60W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 7N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W TO E OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 3N30W. IT THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N34W TO 3N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-12N E OF 21W AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 22W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS INLAND SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS REGION IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 20N W OF 93W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER SOUTHERN GULF S OF 22N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS COASTAL WATERS SW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF 85W PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N84W. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROVIDING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITH E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT. BESIDES THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SW GULF...SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE N-NW BASIN IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INCLUDING CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS EXTEND TO THESE TERRITORIES ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS N OF 16N W OF 80...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE SW BASIN...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 11N W OF 80W. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 67W. A TONGUE OF DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 67W-77W WHERE WIND INCREASES TO 20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE N-NW BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSIST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC IS SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS COASTAL WATERS SW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 29N W OF 78W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N18W TO 28N26W TO 30N36W WITH NO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 16N WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR