000 AXNT20 KNHC 070005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERA CRUZ. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W...INLAND AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 86W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 93W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS CROSSING OVER THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MILES PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL MAY FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY INLAND INTO EASTERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS, ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES, IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.72 IN VERACRUZ...AND 0.03 IN MERIDA...IN MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W TO THE SOUTH OF 11N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS 51W/52W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM EARLIER AND ALREADY-DISSIPATING RAINSHOWERS...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 51W AND TRINIDAD. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N18W AND 7N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 5N33W AND IT CONTINUES TO 5N40W...AND TO 4N45W...AND 5N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THAT ISTO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W...IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT REACHES THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY BEING CAUGHT UP IN THE TROUGH THAT CROSSES HISPANIOLA. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 6500 FEET. NEW IBERIA IN LOUISIANA IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET. THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA IS REPORTING MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS BEING OBSERVED IN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. TALLAHASSEE IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 6000 FEET. THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST IS REPORTING A HIGH CLOUD CEILING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N96W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 16N71W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA ALONG 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 17N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W COVERING HISPANIOLA AND SURROUNDING WATERS. EARLIER AND ALREADY DISSIPATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 20N80W NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN CUBA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.19 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.10 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.04 IN GUADELOUPE. 0.01 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...FEW LOW CLOUDS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...FEW LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH THE CURRENT TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES RIDGE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.04 IN GUADELOUPE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 12.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...PASSING THROUGH 32N78W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N79W 28N80W...TO 26N81W IN FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE NORTHEASTERNMOST CORNER OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N TO 34N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 76W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.03 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 25N58W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N16W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 30N22W 29N27W AND 30N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 41W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENRER THAT IS NEAR 34N45W...THROUGH 32N53W...TO 28N64W...AND THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENRER THAT IS NEAR 34N45W...THROUGH 30N40W...TO 26N33W AND 28N18W NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS...BEYOND 32N12W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT