000 AXNT20 KNHC 061753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A LOW PRES OF 1003 MB REMAINS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19.6N 95.3W AT 06/1200 UTC. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE N TO NEAR 24N97W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED THIS MORNING WITHIN AROUND 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER LIKELY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. NOW VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT CENTER IS VERY WELL-DEFINED AND IS TOTALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION NEAR 19.4N 95.8W. A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED BY THE NHC AT 1055 AM EDT GIVING THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA A HIGH CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHETHER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OR NOT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W FROM 4N TO 11N. THIS WAVE IS RELOCATED FARTHER W BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N51W TO 5N52W. ACCORDING TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT FROM UW-CIMMS... AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE...RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE AS NOTED ON THE TPW ANIMATION AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLC OCEAN THROUGH THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE THEN CONTINUES MAINLY TO THE W TO NEAR 6N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 30W AND EXTENDS FROM 5N32W TO 4N45W TO 5N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 16W AND 19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... OTHER THAN THE SURFACE LOW PRES AND TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MENTIONED ABOVE...MAINLY CLEAR AND FAIR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE GULF N OF 25N UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1017 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 28N85W. THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF OUTSIDE OF THE TROUGH/LOW PRES AREA. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MAINLY TO THE NE OF THE LOW PRES DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW CENTER. ALOFT...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W TO 25N95W TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. DRY AND STABLE AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THIS TROUGHING WHILE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND ACROSS THE GULF REGION S OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... ATLC HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTS THIS ACTIVITY. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ACROSS HAITI INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR 15N75W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT... MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA LIMITING THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC MAP FROM 23N73W ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 17N75W. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 10N W OF 80W LIKELY RELATED TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE ISLAND DURING THE WEEKEND LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HOWEVER...THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1027 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 35N45W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH TO THE SE TO 25N20W AND ALSO TO THE SW TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS. AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 55W AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH SEAS OF 5- 7 FT. A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE AREA AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 31N20W TO 30N25W TO 31N34W. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHILE SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/ TROUGH PATTERN IS NOTED W OF 60W WHILE MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION E OF 60W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR