000 AXNT20 KNHC 061046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND A SHORT-WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 19N94W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF S-SE MEXICO...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE E OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE COULD OCCUR LATER TODAY BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME HOSTILE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 3N24W TO 11N23W...MOVING W NEAR 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK ENGULFS THE NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 5N-10N. TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 4N53W TO 11N51W...MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ENGULFS THIS WAVE AGAIN...WHICH RESULTED IN A REDUCTION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN ITS ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-11N WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SW OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 53W-58W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N12W TO 5N15W TO 5N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N26W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N38W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N49W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-8N E OF 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 18W-23W AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 39W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN GULF. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 25N BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THUS PROVIDING WITH E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT TO GREAT PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF IS BEING REINFORCED BY A 1013 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27N84W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SW GULF...SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND RESPECTIVE ADJACENT WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDS FURTHER EAST TO PUERTO RICO AND COASTAL WATERS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N W OF 80W. A TONGUE OF DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE...THEREFORE FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE SW BASIN...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 11N W OF 80W. SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT S OF 18N BETWEEN 69W-77W WHERE WIND INCREASES TO 20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NW BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND ALONG WITH MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSIST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 58W. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 32N47W SUPPORTS A 1028 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 35N44W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN N OF 17N WHICH IS SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR