000 AXNT20 KNHC 060006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22.5N95W TO THE LOW CENTER TO S MEXICO NEAR 16N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 90W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 23N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. PRESENTLY SURFACE WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN...LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 12N22W TO 04N21W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A STRONG SAL IS ELSEWHERE N OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS FROM 11N47W TO 03N48W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ALSO WELL DEPICTED BY THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AGAIN A STRONG SAL IS ELSEWHERE N OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 49W-51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N26W TO 05N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-12N BETWEEN 06W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 15W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... OUTSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE S OF 25N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHILE FAIR SKIES ARE ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 25N AND CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 25N. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA MOSTLY DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...CUBA... JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 16N SPREADING E. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND. E-SE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ... INSTABILITY...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TO 23N...SPREADING E. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N58W TO 26N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N44W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N. THE METEOSAT SAHARAN AIR LAYER PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS DRY DUSTY AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN E OF 50W EXCEPT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE N OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA