000 AXNT20 KNHC 051742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... LOW PRES IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 11N110W IS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 23.5N95.5W TO THE LOW. SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE NEAR THE LOW AND DESPITE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO. IN THE MEANTIME...FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND TROUGH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM SW OF THE AFRICAN COAST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 12N20W TO 03N19.5W. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. PLENTY OF SAL COVERS THE ENVIRONMENT IN AND AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N W OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 23W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N46W TO 02N46W. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04N W OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 49W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR THE GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE BORDER AT 09N13W TO 06N20W TO 03N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES NEAR 03N31W TO 04N43W THEN RESUMES FROM 03N47W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 13W AND 19W. ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 03E AND 11W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... OTHER THAN THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MENTIONED ABOVE...MAINLY CLEAR AND FAIR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE GULF N OF 25N. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W TO JUST S OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 25N97W. DRY AND STABLE AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THIS TROUGHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE N. 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS IN THE NE GULF LOCATED NEAR 29.5N84W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 29N. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF OUTSIDE OF THE TROUGH/LOW PRES AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF THE AREA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE TAIL END EXTENDING ACROSS HAITI. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. PLENTIFUL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING PUMPED UP ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AROUND A STATIONARY MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE NE PACIFIC. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO WESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N69W. MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. A TIGHT SURFACE PRES GRADIENT IS PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 1006 MB LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W AND ATLC RIDGING NOSING INTO THE BASIN FROM THE NE. THIS PRES PATTERN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 7-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND MAINLY 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS ALSO TIGHTENED WITH LOW PRES TO THE NW OF THE AREA. ...HISPANIOLA... DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE COVERS THE ISLAND WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE ISLAND AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE ISLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CIRCULATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE W OF THE AREA. THIS ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO PUMP IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NE PACIFIC. THESE FACTORS ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED NEAR 33N39W SUPPORTS A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 36N44W. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH TO THE SE TO 30N20W AND ALSO TO THE SW TO NEAR 26N59W. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 55W AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS. AN ELONGATED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N60W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO 25N63W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N69W TO ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO HAITI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING A LARGE AREA S OF 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE NW PORTION NEAR 30N73W SUPPORTING RIDGING ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS. MAINLY GENTLY TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS... EXCEPT 1-3 FT SEAS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY