000 AXNT20 KNHC 051152 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2014 UPDATED FOR SPECIAL FEATURES TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN ELONGATED MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S- SE MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM 22N94W TO A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 19N94W TO 16N94W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF S OF 25N. DESPITE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IF THE LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE OF EASTERN MEXICO. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N19W TO 3N18W. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK ENGULFS THE N- NW ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 17W-22W. TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N42W TO 3N43W...MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS IT IS ENGULFED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 7N19W TO 5N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 5N27W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N34W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40W...IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE NEAR 5N45W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 3N-7N E OF 22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 34W-40W AND FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 45W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 25N BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THUS PROVIDING WITH E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT TO GREAT PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SHOW E-SE WIND OF 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE JUST E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS DATA ALSO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N84W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SW GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N75W TO 18N76W. THIS DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA AS WELL AS THE NW BASIN W OF 80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE...THUS FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-76W WHERE WIND INCREASES TO 20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR CUBA AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THIS RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSIST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL ELONGATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 31N43W SUPPORTS A 1030 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 36N43W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN N OF 17N WHICH IS SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC BETWEEN 52W- 66W IS SUPPORTING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N57W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTERED BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N75W TO 18N76W. THIS DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW N ATLC S OF 25N BETWEEN 66W-77W...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 67W-73W. THE TROUGH NEAR 60W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR/JRL