000 AXNT20 KNHC 050603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 12N41W TO 4N42W...MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS IT IS ENGULFED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 8N18W 5N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 5N23W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N32W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N39W...IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE NEAR 4N44W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 3N-8N E OF 21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 32W-38W AND FROM 6N-8N W OF 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S- SE MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM 24N92W TO A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 19N94W TO 17N94W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF S OF 26N...EXCEPT S OF 22N E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 26N BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THUS PROVIDING WITH E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SW GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW IS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 24N73W TO 18N74W. THIS DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA AS WELL AS THE NW BASIN W OF 80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE...THUS FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-76W WHERE WIND INCREASES TO 20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR CUBA AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 35N42W SUPPORTS A 1032 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 36N42W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN N OF 16N WHICH IS SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC BETWEEN 52W-69W IS SUPPORTING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BEING ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N58W SW TO 25N62W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING TO 23N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N73W TO 18N74W WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 66W-79W...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR