000 AXNT20 KNHC 042350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N40W TO 04N41W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBITS CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS THAT COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 850 MB VORTICITY NEAR 09N. PRECIPITATION REMAINS LIMITED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 06N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N21W TO 05N30W TO 01N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 03W. ISOLATED MODERATE MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 16W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A SMALL 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19.5N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N94W TO THE LOW CENTER TO THE REMNANTS OF T.D. BORIS NEAR 16.5N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 16N- 22N BETWEEN 90W-93W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 26N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVELS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 24N. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ALSO PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 18N W OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND. E-SE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ... INSTABILITY...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N57W TO 26N60W TO 23N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 55W-58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 67W-80W. A LARGE 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N42W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 24N54W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE METEOSAT SAHARAN AIR LAYER PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS DRY DUSTY AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN E OF 50W EXCEPT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 40N60W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 46N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION N OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA