000 AXNT20 KNHC 041753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N39W TO 13N39W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBITS CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS THAT COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 850 MB VORTICITY NEAR 09N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH ISOLATED MODERATE OCCURRING FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 40W-42W...DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO 04N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 03W...AND FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 24W-31W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 11W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 36W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION WESTWARD TO 28N92W THEN SW TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N98W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS PREVENTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING N OF 27N ACROSS THE GULF. ALL THIS MOISTURE ORIGINATES FROM EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS GENERATED BY A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY S OF 25N W OF 88W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. FURTHER AIDING IN THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE FRINGE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS NEAR 27N85W. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SW GULF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS STRONG ALONG 29N ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND SE U.S. COASTLINE INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO SPILL EAST OF THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT THE SURFACE...E-SE FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 17N AND W OF 81W...INCLUDING MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. TO THE SOUTH...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING S OF 10N W OF 80W IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N/10N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT S OF 17N E OF 81W. AN INTRUSION OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ALSO IMPACTING THIS AREA SUPPORTING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE FOR THE WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS NOTED S OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-77W AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. AN EARLY MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 04/1418 UTC CONFIRMED THIS STRONGER AREA OF WIND BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA COAST. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. E-SE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC NEAR 38N64W WITH A 1007 MB LOW COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. PARTIALLY OCCLUDED TO THE NORTH OF 36N...TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W EXTENDING TO 30N57W CONTINUING SW AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N60W TO 23N65W TO 23N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF 62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N69W. MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO COVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 25N W OF 68W. FARTHER EAST...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WATERS E OF 50W AS A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN