000 AXNT20 KNHC 041044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 10N39W TO 1N40W...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH DRY AIR IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THAT REGION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 8N BETWEEN 38W-44W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 7N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N26W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 3N36W...IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE NEAR 3N42W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 3N-10N E OF 17W AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 24W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM 24N92W TO A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 20N94W TO 18N94W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AS WELL AS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF A LINE FROM 28N85W SW TO 21N97W. CHANCES THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS REMAIN LOW...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SW BASIN AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND SE CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR W ATLC. THE RIDGE ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 30N83W WHICH EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE NE GULF AND PROVIDES E-SE FLOW OF 5-15 KT OVER THE EASTERN AS WELL AS THE NW GULF. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW GULF IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. CARIBBEAN SEA... DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 83W ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THESE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC HAS BEEN ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER PUERTO RICO WHICH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. OVER THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 10N W OF 79W. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE...THUS FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-75W AND S OF 18N W OF 84W WHERE THERE IS A WIND MAX OF 20 KT. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS FOR THE SW AND NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS CENTRAL AMERICA. ...HISPANIOLA... THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS JUST N OF THE ISLAND WHILE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN IS BEING INFLUENCED BY RIDGING. THIS IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH ALONG ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK WHICH ALONG DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. A DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH INTO THE SW N ATLC TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N55W TO 23N62W TO 22N70W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 54W-58W. ELSEWHERE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR